Hang 'em High

The big question in this year's general election is will the results lead to a hung parliament. A hung parliament occurs when no one party garners a clear majority of seats. When voters go to the polls, 650 seats in the House of Commons will be up for grabs and the winning party will have gain at least 326 seats to form a majority. Labour will lose it's majority if losses 24 seats and the Conservatives gain a majority if they win 116 more seats then they have now.

While it is all but certain that Labour will lose the 24 seats, there are serious questions about whether the Tories can win 116 seats. For the Conservatives to win enough seats there will have to be a swing of 6.9% of the vote away from Labour and towards the Conservatives. The current polling appears to indicate a swing of less then what is needed and the Conservatives being 21 seats of the absolute majority needed.

If there is a hung parliament then the party with the largest number of seats can try to form a majority or the various parties can try to form a coalition government. Gordon Brown might have the advantage in this because as the sitting prime minister he, almost by default, will get the first crack at forming a government. The most likely possibility is that Labour will try to form a coalition with the Liberal Democrats and whatever 3rd parties can be brought into the coalition. If Brown can't form a coalition then the Conservative will probably form some type of government.

The most recent election to produce a hung parliament is 1974. Ted Heath's Conservative's lost on election day but Heath held on through the weekend trying to form a coalition before finally resigning in favor of Harold Wilson's Labour party. Peter Hennesssy tells a great story in his book The Prime Minister. During the weekend while the 1974 elections were in doubt, the cabinet secretary and the Queen's private secretary walked around St. James Park discussing all the options.

As an observer, and a person with no stake in the results, I want a hung parliament because I want to see what happens and how a hung parliament will resolve itself. Strictly as an interested observer, I am pulling for a close election and a hung parliament.

The Highest Court in the Realm

Today, the House of Lords handed down the last judicial decisions it will ever make.  That is because the UK is getting a supreme court.  Since the Middle Ages, the highest court in the UK was the House of Lords, which is also the second legislative house of Parliament.  Twelve senior judges sit in the Lords and handle all the legal appeals that come before the body and these twelve jurists are known as the Law Lords.  These twelve, and only these twelve, are allowed to rule on judicial cases.  As members of the House of Lords, the twelve Law Lords can participate in debates and vote on legislation.  However, most wait until after they retire from the legal profession to participate in the legislative affairs in the Lords.

All of that changes in October when the UK Supreme Court starts to hear cases.  In accordance with the Constitutional Reform Act of 2005, The Supreme Court of the United Kingdom will take over the legal function of the House of Lords.  The current Law Lords will become the first justices and succeeding justice will be appointed by the Queen on the advice of the Prime Minister.  One key feature will be that, unlike the U.S. Supreme Court, proceedings of the UK Supreme Court will televised.

Every political system has its anachronisms(The goings on in the U.S. Senate come to mind), but some countries seem to be able to reform their systems when the need arises.  The UK seems just such a country.

Habemus Speaker

The House of Commons elected a new Speaker today.  Longtime Conservative backbencher John Bercow became the 157th Speaker of the House.  In a series of votes, Speaker Bercow defeated 9 other candidates in an election that for the first time in Commons history used secret ballots.  

The Speaker is a Tory who has has gradually moved  left; especially on social issues.  The Speaker is also the first Jew to hold this position.

The Backbencher wishes to congratulate Speaker Bercow on his elevation to the Speakership of the mother of all Parliaments.   

325 Out of 646

According to some polls there could be as many as 325 new MPs after the next general election.  Due to the scandal over expenses half of the current members of the House of Commons might leave; either voluntarily or voted out.  If you ever wanted to be a Member of Parliament this might be your chance.

Order, Order

A new voice will be keeping order in the House of Commons starting on June 22.

Speaker Michael Martin resigned his position today effective on June 21.  The scandal over MPs expenses finally engulfed the Speaker.  Since the Speaker chairs the committee that sets and enforces the ethics rules for Parliament, reforms minded MPs viewd the speak as an obstacle to needed reforms.  Front runners to be elected the new Speaker include Deputy Speaker Sir Alan Haselhurst, former Labour minister Frank Fields, and former Liberal Democrat leader Sir Menzies Campbell.  Personally, I am hoping the Sir Menzies becomes the new Speaker because I think a Speaker from a third party would be a good development for the Commons.

Speaker Martin's problem was the common one of misreading the threat.  He saw the danger as having the situation get out of control and out into the public instead of the issue of expenses.  The misreading caused him to view those MPs  calling for reform as threats instead of allies in an attempt to save the reputation of Parliament.  In doing so he forfeited his ability to lead.  A common mistake but one that cost him the Speakership.

That being said, this scandal is not a Speaker issue it is a Parliament issue.  If the scandal is so deep that the Speaker resigned over it then it is too much for this Parliament to fix.  More then a new speaker is needed; a new Parliament is needed.  Parliament should be dissolved and a general election should be called.

Drowning in Expenses

Over in the UK the scandal over MPs expenses continues to grow and engulf more MPs.  Prime Minister Gordon Brown today suspended Elliot Morley from the Labour Party over Morley claiming 16,000 pounds in mortgage payments on a loan he already repaid.  Morley is a former minister, chairs the Commons Energy and Climate Change Committee, and serves as Gordon Brown's advisor on climate change issues, and his future as an MP is on doubt. 

Labour is not the only party to be caught up in this scandal.  Andrew MacKay, a parliamentary aide to Conservative leader David Cameron, resigned his position as Cameron's aide over problems with his expenses.  Earlier this week, Cameron ordered members of his front bench team to pay back any excessive excessive claims they made.  

According to polling data, both Labour and the Tories are suffering but the Liberal Democrats and the assorted third parties are both up in polling.  Last week the Conservatives were predicated to have a majority of 150 in the event of a general election but their expected majority is down to 100.

Another casualty might very well be the Speaker of the House.  Speaker Michael Martin is receiving harsh criticism over his handling of the scandal.  Some MPs harbor a suspicion that the Speaker is preventing a full inquiry into the scandal over expenses and preventing the introduction of reforms.  An all-party group of MPs have even introduced a motion of no confidence in the Speaker.  The Guardian even reported that senior MPs went to Speaker Martin and told him that he needs to stand down at the next general election.     

I don't know what will come from this scandal.  I do not think Labour will recover to make any type of comeback, but I can't see the Tories gaining any advantage from this and I see this as actually cutting into their potential majority.  A new Speaker might be in store when a new parliament convenes and may even be in place before a new parliament convenes.  It also seems clear that major ethics reform will be in place, and some even suggest this scandal will lead to a dissolution of Parliament and a new election.  It is clear that Parliament will be much different after this scandal that it was before. 

The End of this Affair

Back in late November Conservative MP Damian Green was arrested in an investigation into leaks of government secrets.  Recently prosecutors announced the Mr. Green will not face any charges in the matter.

The ending to this affair is a major embarrassment for a lot of people.  Jacqui Smith, the Home Secretary, continues to face questions about her job performance and about the relationship between the Home Office and police officials.  As polls continue to indicate that Labour is getting ready to drive off an electoral cliff it continually appears that the Home Secretary is helping to steer the party into oblivion.

Scotland Yard continues to reel.  The Green affair and accusations of misconduct and abuse towards protesters at the G20 summit continue to put the police under a harsh light.  Some serious reform might be in order for Scotland Yard.

Speaker Michael Martin and House of Commons staff also do not come of well because they did not do a good job protecting the rights of Parliament or MPs.  One of the main jobs of the Speaker is to protect the privileges of  the Commons and its members.  There is some question about whether the Speaker will stand at the next election.  This episode may sway his mind towards standing down.

Damien Green the Tory MP whose arrest started this whole affair perhaps summed it up best when he said "I cannot think of a better symbol of an out of touch, authoritarian, failing government that has been in power for for too long."  That is why it looks like there will be sweeping changes next spring.

 

Henry VIII Rolls Over in His Gave...

...And Somewhere Thomas More Smiles

For the first time since the Reformation a Catholic Bishop is poised to sit in the House of Lords.  Cardinal Cormac Murphy-O'Connor will soon retire as the Archbishop of Westminster.  After his retirement Cardinal Murphy-O'Connor will be offered a peerage.

The 26 Church of England Bishops sit in the Lords and form the Lords Spiritual.  Free Church ministers and the Chief Rabbi often sit in the House of Lords as Lords Temporal.

 

Classic Backbencher

John McDonnell is the Labour MP representing the constituency of Hayes and Harlington, which includes Heathrow Airport.  Many of Mr McDonnell's constituents will be displaced or otherwise inconvenienced by the government's plan to add a third runway.  During a debate on the proposal, Mr. McDonnell grew so incensed that in an act defiance he grabbed the ceremonial mace and placed it on an empty bench.  This little act of rebellion caused Mr. McDonnell to be suspended from the House of Commons for 5 days. 

Perhaps this was a futile gesture but it was one that we can all admire.

Friends Forever

Tony Blair and Gordon Brown have apparently buried the hatchet.

New Year in UK Parliament

On Monday, the UK Parliament returns from its holiday break.  In no particular order, here some stories that we will we watching to see how they develop.

1.  Gordon Brown and the Financial Crisis.  When the financial crisis hit back in the fall, Gordon Brown was at the nadir of his young premiership and the Conservatives maintained a large lead in the polls.  There were even rumblings of a Labour rebellion to oust Brown.  Once the crisis hit, Brown used his experience as Chancellor of the Exchequer to take decisive action and Brown's standing in the polls has steadily risen.  It remains to be seen if Brown's actions will work or if the global crisis will eventually put a drag on Labour's popularity.  Brown will announce on  Monday a 500,000,000 pound jobs program to deal with long terms unemployment and to stave off a larger recession.

2.  The government would like to build a 3rd runway at Heathrow Airport to reduce congestion.  A cross party group, including Labour rebels, are trying to force a debate and a vote in the Commons on this proposal.  Action on a 3rd runway could happen this week.

3.  Gordon Brown brought Peter Mandelson(now Lord Mandelson) back into the cabinet to be Business Minister.  One of Mandelson's first plans is for a semi-privatization of Royal Mail.  John Prescott, who was Tony Blair's deputy, is firmly opposed to the plan and is starting to lead a rebellion against it.  I believe this may be a sign of a struggle for the Soul of the Labour Party between the old trade unionists like Prescott and the New Labour Blairites. 

4.  Tory Leader David Cameron will soon be making changes to his shadow cabinet.  One possible move is to bring former Chancellor Kenneth Clarke into the Shadow Cabinet to possibly shadow Lord Mendelson with some type of trade and industry portfolio.  However, Tories who disagree with Clake's positions on Europe are saying that his appointment might split the party.

5.  After the arrest of a Tory shadow minister for soliciting civil servants for classified information and a raid on the shadow minister's Westminster office there are questions about Speaker the House Michael Martin's ability to carry out his duties.  Watch closely to see how the fallout from Scotland Yard's raid affects the Commons.

6.  Will Brown call an early election?  A UK general election is not scheduled until 2010.  The question is will Brown feel that his actions during the financial crisis have strengthened his popularity with the electorate enough to call an early election. 

Here are some links to to help you follow the UK Parliament:

UK Parliament Website 

BBC Parliament

The Guardian

The Times

BBC Politics

What is a backbencher?

My wife pointed out in her blog, which is located at liturgygeek.blogspot.com, that I should explain the term backbencher.  So, I will.

The term comes from the UK parliament.  Members of parliament sit on benches that face each other.  The party that forms the government of the day(currently the Labour party) sit on the benches to the right of the speaker.  The party in opposition(currently the Conservative Party) and the various third parties(the Liberal Democrats, etc.) sit on the benches on the speaker's left.  Party leaders, either government ministers or members of the opposition shadow cabinet, sit on the benches at the front and are known as "frontbenchers."  Rank and file members sit on the benches behind the party leaders and are known as "backbenchers."

A good description of what a backbencher does can be found in the book Commons Knowledge: How to be a Backbencher by Paul Flynn, MP.  Mr Flynn is a Labour MP for the Welsh constituency of Newport West.  I don't think you can buy the book in the US but you can order it from bookshop.parliament.co.uk.

I chose this as my blog title as nod to my political junkiness and my fascination with the UK parliament