Dinner With Friends

For the second time in my life I had dinner with a congressman. The first was in 2007 when Rep. Jay Inslee(D-WA-1) campaigned for Hillary Clinton during the Iowa Caucuses. Tonight I, and about 20 others, had dinner with Rep. Leonard Boswell(D-IA-3). Thanks to reapportionment, Rep. Boswell's 3rd district will now include Red Oak. To represent Red Oak and the rest of the 3rd district, Boswell will have to win a competitive race with Rep. Tom Latham(R-IA-4). The new 3rd district will run roughly from Des Moines south to the Missouri line, and from Des Moines west to the Nebraska line. Boswell is using these past few days to meet party activists in the southwest Iowa counties that he has never represented.

The big topic was the budget and what to do about the deficit. Boswell, as did every other Democrat, voted against the Republican budget plan that passed the house last week. As a fiscally conservative "Blue Dog," Boswell believes that the deficit issue must be addressed soon. However, he said that he did not want to do so at the expense of traditional Democratic social programs. What was interesting was that Boswell said one of his favored means of reducing the deficit was to begin pulling out of Afghanistan. If even a moderate Democrat like Boswell is entertaining the idea of leaving Afghanistan then there is chance that the war might soon draw to a close.

The rest of the evening passed with a question and answer period covering the basic issues. Boswell appeared fully supportive of alternative fuels and especially the algae fuel plant in Shenandoah. Former Iowa First Lady Christie Vilsack's campaign in Iowa's 4th district against Republican Steve King was a topic that arnared everyone's attention. Boswell all but confirmed Vilsac's plan and said that she just bought a house in Ames so that she can live in the district. A good turnout, and the graciousness of Rep. and Mrs. Boswell, made this one of the more encouraging evening to be a Democrat in southwest Iowa. The Backbencher is fully supportive of Rep. Boswell and the push for this part of Iowa to finally be represented by a Democrat.

Doing the Double

During the first week of May 1979, Arsenal won the FA Cup and Margaret Thatcher became Prime Minister. Noted Arsenal fanatic, and political left winger, Nick Hornby, admits that he was willing to accept a Conservative victory in the general election if it meant that Arsenal would win the cup. Arsenal goes on to win the cup in miraculous fashion, and the Tories won the general election. Reflecting on this week years later, Hornby ponders if this bargain of a Conservative win was worth the bargain of an Arsenal cup victory. Looking back on 11 years of Thatcher, and a total of 18 years of Tory rule, Hornby concludes that he wouldn't settle now for anything less then the double(FA cup and league title in the same year).

I find myself in a similar position. Yesterday, Democrats suffered a large defeat in the midterm elections. The defeat of many politicians(Russ Feingold, Alan Grayson) that I admire saddens me, and the result of the elections here in Iowa leave me on the verge of being despondent.

However, the biggest event of the week was the San Francisco Giants winning the World Series. I have been a Giants fan since I was a toddler in the late 1970's. The very first sporting events I ever attended were Giants games at Candlestick Park and as I boy I would fall asleep listening to Giants games on the radio. I celebrated the hum-baby season of 1987 and I was devestated by 87 NLCS series against the Cardinals. I took great joy in the 89 pennant, and watched with horror and humiliation the 1989 earthquake World Series. I enjoyed the summer of 93 and watched with uncomprehending dread the fall of 93 as the Giants managed to win 103 games but still miss the play-offs by 1 game. In 2002 I thought the Giants were finally going to win it all but with 5 outs remaining the whole season fell apart. Along the way there have been numerous minor heartaches and frustrations.

All of that changed on Monday night as the Giants finally won the World Series and they did it in a season in which no one expected them to make a serious run. Earl Weaver's adage that pitching, defense, and the three run homer are the keys to victory held true for the Giants. 30+ years of devotion and heartache were justified during this magical run.

For me, the elation of a Giants championship makes even last night's election results bearable. For I have been a Giants fan longer then I have been a political junkie, and I have learned that Giants baseball is much more dependable then the electorate. However, unlike Hornby, I did get my double. The college team that I pull for, the University of South Carolina Gamecocks, won the College World Series and I even attended a game. Even the minor league team in my hometown, the Jacksonville Suns, won the Southern League title.

So I thank the Gamecocks for a foretaste of the joy that was to come throughout the summer. Most of all I thank the San Francisco Giants who made every night of dressing in layers to attend a ball game June, and every year of being a long distance fan worth it. Mostly I thank the Giants for redeeming every season of heartbreak and frustration in one joyful and exciting play-off ride. Thank you and always Fear the Beard.

Election Predicitions

Here are my predictions for tomorrow's elections:

House: I predict a Republican gain of 48 seats.

Senate:

Republican Wins: North Dakota(John Hoeven), Arkansas(John Boozeman), Indiana(Dan Coats), Wisconsin(Ron Johnson), Florida(Marco Rubio), Pennsylvania(Pat Toomey), Kentucky(Rand Paul), Alaska(Lisa Murkowski).

Democrat Wins: Nevada(Harry Reid), California(Barbara Boxer), Washington(Patty Murray), West Virgina(Joe Manchin), Illinois(Alex Gianoulias), Delaware(Chris Coons), Connecticut(Richard Blumenthal), Colorado(Michael Bennett)

This would lead to a Republican gain of 5 seats

Iowa:

In Iowa I see Republican Terry Branstad defeating incumbent Democrat Chet Culver to win the Governor's office, Republican Senator Charles Grassley defeating his Democratic challenger Roxanne Conlin, and all 5 congressional incumbents winning

There will be lots of talk that the Democrats overreached and this is why they suffered such a massive defeat. I disagree. It is virtually impossible to overreach in politics. The window for getting things done is so small that you get as much done when you can. Democrats had once in a generation majorities and they got everything passed that I think they could have passed.

The real explanation is that the country was in such bad shape that the voters elected many more Democrats than Republicans in 2006 and 2008, and voters put Democrats in charge of returning the country to the right track. The return to the right track has not happened fast enough and so voters are going to show their displeasure by electing more Republicans than Democrats. It really is as simple as that.

So You Want to be a Rox and Roll Star

On Saturday 10 hearty souls braved the winter cold and a forecast of 5-8 inches of snow(that never materialized) to hear the frontrunner for the Democratic senate nomination. Roxanne Conlin was once a rising star in the Iowa Democratic Party; she was a U.S. attorney during the Carter administration and she was the Democratic nominee for Governor in 1982("I was first runner up," she said). After her gubernatorial bid, Conlin retired from frontline politics. Conlin said that Sen. Chuck Grassley's(R-IA) antics during the debate over healthcare drove her to run against him.

Conlin came off as a typical Democratic candidate. She favors the healthcare reform and even appeared to endorse the idea of "medicare for all." All of the questions were related to domestic issues. Every participant asked about, or voiced support for, healthcare. There were also questions about further stimulus, jobs, and immigration. It also appeared that everyone is sick with American political culture. Most specifically attendees were distressed by the corporate role in American politics and the recent Supreme Court ruling in the Citizens United case. Strikingly, there were no questions about foreign policy or national security. Nobody asked about Iran, Afghanistan, Iran, terrorism or any other foreign policy issue. It is clear that the 2010 election will be focused on domestic issues.

I am glad Roxanne Conlin came to Southwest Iowa, which is the part of Iowa most ignored by the Democratic establishment. I do think her run speaks to the difficult conditions for Democrats this year. The most effective possible challenger is off in D.C. working as the Secretary of Agriculture and the other big names in Iowa Democratic politics all passed on the race when their names were floated as possible challengers. Even though Sen. Grassley disgraced himself with his conduct over the healthcare debate, it seems clear that no major Democrat wants to risk anything to hold him accountable and that is sad.

Even though it is an uphill climb to defeat Grassley, all Iowa Democrats should commend Conlin and the other candidates in the Democratic primary. They have shown a willingness to risk all and hold an incumbent Senator accountable. That deserves our respect and support.

Mass Reax.

Last night in Massachusetts Republican Scott Brown defeated Democrat Martha Coakley to win the special election to fill the U.S. Senate seat most recently held by the late Sen. Ted Kennedy(D-MA). I feel obligated to share some of my thoughts about this development.

1. Congratulations are in order to Senator-elect Brown. He ran the better campaign; he diagnosed the mood of the electorate better, he ran a more disciplined campaign, and he was quick to pounce on Coakley's many gaffes. Sometimes in politics the person who does a better job is rewarded.

2. This is a setback for President Obama and the Democrat's agenda but it is only any insurmountable obstacle if Obama and the Congressional leaders allow it it to be one. I have long thought that Obama spent most of his political capital cleaning up the mess the Bush administration left. However, I thought there was still enough capital to pass the healthcare bill. All the the other major agenda items are probably of the table; except for economic and job issues that can be addressed through the budget and reconciliation process. Still with helathcare added to the mix this would be a substantive first Congressional session for Obama.

3. There is a Senate helathcare bill that the House can pass tomorrow if it wants to and there is still an empty healthcare reconciliation bill that can also be used. The House needs to pass that bill and then come back and use the reconciliation bill to pass the compromises the White House and Congress are currently negotiating. Morally this has to happen because people need to have access to healthcare and they need to know they will always be able to have health insurance. Politically, this bill has to pass because Congressional Democrats and President Obama cannot afford to not have this bill pass. If this bill fails then it will be the end of Democratic power in Washington for a long time. Also Democrats need to change the narrative. Right now the narrative is that the Democrats are in disarray and their agenda is possible. If healthcare passes then the narrative changes to Democrats fight and overcome setback to pass healthcare bill.

I have been watching Democrats for too long to think they will choose the obvious path. However, I hope they soon see that this is only real path they have.

Taking the 5th

The 5th Congressional district of Iowa comprises all of western part of the state. All of us who live in the 5th district have the joy of being represented by Republican Steve King. It is not that King is a conservative Republican that makes him an embarrassment but the fact that he is a unrepentant bigot. King called a vote against Hurricane Katrina Relief was "the best vote I ever cast." He cast the lone vote against a resolution honoring the slaves who built the U.S. Capitol.

Fighting the good fight to replace King is Mike Denklau. The Backbencher is an avid supporter of Denklau's campaign and encourages you to do the same. If you live in the 5th district, then find out when Mike is going to be in your area and go meet him. The Backbencher also encourages you to find ways to assist with his campaign. If you live outside the 5th, then consider contributing and telling your friends to that we can raise the national profile of this campaign.

Mike Denklau's website is here.

Here is an ActBlue fundraising page if you want to contribute.

Election 09

The results from this year's elections are in, and the result is basically a draw. Two governor's mansions currently held by Democrats were won by Republicans, the Democrats won both of the special elections for Congressional seats, and the fight for marriage equality spilt between a narrow defeat in Maine and a narrow victory in Washington State.

This was not a referendum on President Obama or the national Democratic Party. The two federal elections were both won by Democrats. In the 23rd district of New York, a place that has been electing Republicans to Congress since U.S. Grant was a national figure, Democrat Bill Owens defeated the tea-bagger candidate.

In Virgina, Republican Bob McDonald defeated Democrat Creigh Deeds by running away from his hard right record, and getting an assist from Deed's tepid campaign. Of the two, Deeds was one whose campaign went to great lengths to distance itself from Obama. In New Jersey, Republican Chris Christie defeated incumbent Democrat John Corzine. While New Jersey is a state that usually votes for Democrats, Christy Todd Whitman was a recent popular GOP governor. Corzine was done id by a combination of a trouble economy, budget difficulties, and ties to Wall Street firms(a combination that almost did in the more popular New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg).

The national political dynamics that placed Barack Obama and his governing coalition in office are still the same. Both of the Republicans who won did so based on local issues and Christie explicitly used Obama in a campaign ad. In both of the elections for federal office, where federal issues are important, the Democrat won.

Granted, a tie is not a victory and it does not feel like one. The biggest reason is the marriage equality loss in Maine. While it is a deeply disappointing loss, I can see something of a silver lining. I realize also that it is easy for me say this. However, I believe that time is on the side of equality even though there will be more disappointing days between now and then.

We Might Have Ourselves a Race

Reports in Iowa are mentioning a possible anonymous big name Democratic challenger to Republican Senator Chuck Grassley. Beltway speculation centers on Rep. Bruce Braley(D-IA-1). Braley already has turning a Republican seat into a Democratic one but this time he would he would have to beat an incumbent.

I think it would be hard for Braley to defeat Grassley. Grassley is a longtime and popular incumbent, and 2010 looks like it will be a year that leans toward the GOP. However, Grassley's actions during the health care debate deserve a moment of accountability. A serious challenge to Grassley might not lead to 2 Democratic Senators from Iowa but it would force Grassley to face accountability for his role in the health care debate, and democracy is about forcing political leaders to be accountable and not getting a free ride for their actions.

Iowa GOP Going Back in Time?

The Iowa Republican Party is having trouble recruiting challengers to take on incumbent Governor Chet Culver.  This is not a good sign for the Iowa GOP because, like many incumbent governors facing election in 2010, Culver could be vulnerable.  In their desire to unseat Culver, some in the GOP are turning to former Governor Terry Branstad.  An article in today's Des Moines Register outlines Branstad's chances in a GOP primary.  

There are a couple of things to take from this article.  One of those is the article does not address the fact the Iowa is a swing state that is going increasingly Democratic.  Democrats have won the last 3 gubernatorial elections and Obama won Iowa by almost 10 points.  Would a Republican, even a popular former governor, fare well in an increasingly blue state.

Another thing is that Branstad built his reputation as a pragmatic conservative who could get things done.  There were many such Republican governors in the 1990's; they include Michigan's John Engler, Illinois' Jim Edgar, Wisconsin's Tommy Thompson, and even George W. Bush in his Texas incarnation when he worked with a Democratic Lt. Governor.  Branstad worked with a Democratic legislature to pass budgets that included increases in the sales tax.  Branstad also supported the lottery, and bringing casino gambling to Iowa.  At the same time, Branstad never got the reputation as a crusading cultural conservative.  As Governor, Branstad did nominate the justice who wrote the opinion that legalized same-sex marriage in Iowa.  The article makes it clear that it is an open question as to whether the tea-party, christianist rump that is the modern GOP would even get behind the former Governor.

In the end I think this bodes well for Culver.  Culver has problems with some in his own base and while he is not universally loved, I don't think he is universally loathed.  I claim no special insight but my somewhat educated guess is that Branstad will not run because he will look at the Iowa GOP and see that his brand of pragmatic conservatism no longer fits with the party.  What I think will happen is that Culver will win by virtue of the fact that he is not the primary scarred mediocrity that will probably end up coming out of the Republican primary.

He's Good Enough, He's Smart Enough...

And doggone it, he's a Senator.