Monday, November 1, 2010

Election Predicitions

Here are my predictions for tomorrow's elections:

House: I predict a Republican gain of 48 seats.

Republican Wins: North Dakota(John Hoeven), Arkansas(John Boozeman), Indiana(Dan Coats), Wisconsin(Ron Johnson), Florida(Marco Rubio), Pennsylvania(Pat Toomey), Kentucky(Rand Paul), Alaska(Lisa Murkowski).
Democrat Wins: Nevada(Harry Reid), California(Barbara Boxer), Washington(Patty Murray), West Virgina(Joe Manchin), Illinois(Alex Gianoulias), Delaware(Chris Coons), Connecticut(Richard Blumenthal), Colorado(Michael Bennett)
This would lead to a Republican gain of 5 seats

In Iowa I see Republican Terry Branstad defeating incumbent Democrat Chet Culver to win the Governor's office, Republican Senator Charles Grassley defeating his Democratic challenger Roxanne Conlin, and all 5 congressional incumbents winning

There will be lots of talk that the Democrats overreached and this is why they suffered such a massive defeat. I disagree. It is virtually impossible to overreach in politics. The window for getting things done is so small that you get as much done when you can. Democrats had once in a generation majorities and they got everything passed that I think they could have passed.

The real explanation is that the country was in such bad shape that the voters elected many more Democrats than Republicans in 2006 and 2008, and voters put Democrats in charge of returning the country to the right track. The return to the right track has not happened fast enough and so voters are going to show their displeasure by electing more Republicans than Democrats. It really is as simple as that.

1 comment:

  1. I hope you are wrong, but I think you are dead on. Will there be baseball to watch on Tuesday instead?